The Duke Blue Devils are riding a perfect 7-0 record into a nationally televised Thanksgiving night clash against the Arkansas Razorbacks on the CBS Sports Thanksgiving Classicthe United Center in Chicago. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS, and the stakes aren’t just about pride — they’re about validating Duke’s claim as a national title contender and testing Arkansas’ explosive, young roster against the nation’s stingiest defense.
Duke’s Defensive Machine: A New Standard in College Basketball
Duke isn’t just winning — they’re rewriting the playbook on how to dominate defensively. Through seven games, the Blue Devils have allowed just 399 total points, averaging a jaw-dropping 57.0 points per game — the lowest in NCAA Division I. Opponents shoot a paltry 33% from the field and under 25% from three-point range. That’s not luck. That’s discipline. That’s pressure. That’s defense as a system, not a slogan.
They’re also rebounding like a team possessed, pulling down 40.9 boards per game while holding opponents to 27.9 — a +13.0 differential that’s nearly as impressive as their scoring margin. And yet, their offense? It’s no afterthought. At 93.6 points per game, they rank 16th nationally. The twist? They don’t play fast. Duke ranks 242nd in pace. They win by grinding, by controlling tempo, by making every possession count. That’s why the under is hitting in six of their seven games this season.
Arkansas: Youth, Fire, and a Lot to Prove
Arkansas comes in at 5-1, averaging 91.0 points per game — good for 34th in the nation. But here’s the catch: they’re allowing 70.2 points per contest, which ranks 123rd. Their strength? Speed. Transition. Chaos. Freshman guard Meleek Thomas is their spark — averaging 2.7 made threes per game and scoring 16+ in every game he’s played more than 18 minutes. D.J. Wagner (1.8 steals/game) and Brazile (1.8 blocks/game) add perimeter pressure and rim protection.
But can they handle Duke’s suffocating half-court defense? The Razorbacks thrive in transition, ranking 25th in potential fast-break points. But Duke rarely lets games get open. They force turnovers, then slow it down. That’s the matchup nobody’s talking about — Arkansas’ speed vs. Duke’s control. It’s like sending a sprinter into a chess match.
The Betting Landscape: Heavy Favorites, Split Opinions
The odds tell a clear story: Duke is a massive favorite. Moneyline ranges from -575 to -700. The point spread sits at Duke -11.5 (-110), with the over/under at 159.5. Public betting is lopsided — 62% of bets and money are on Duke. But the smart money? It’s not so simple.
Dimers.com ran 10,000 simulations and gave Duke an 80% win probability, projecting a final score of 80-71. But here’s the oddity: multiple analysts are betting on Arkansas +11.5. Covers.com lists it as their top pick. Boomer Betz and another anonymous analyst with a 194-184-10 record both took Arkansas +10.5. Why? Because Duke’s defense doesn’t just stop points — it slows the game to a crawl. Arkansas might lose by 12… but they’ll still have 70 points. And that’s the key.
StatsAlt.com is all-in on the under — 5 units on 158. They point out Duke has held seven straight opponents under 65 points. Arkansas? They’ve gone under in four of their last five. Even with their offensive firepower, they’re not built to outscore Duke in a half-court slugfest.
Expert Picks and Parlay Plays
Experts are divided. Bleacher Nation predicts Duke 82, Arkansas 74 — with Arkansas covering the spread and the game going under. SportsGambler.com says Duke has a 60% chance to cover -9.5, better than the bookmakers’ 52.4%. But the most compelling bet? A same-game parlay from Covers.com: Arkansas +11.5, under 159.5, Meleek Thomas over 14.5 points, and Cameron Boozer under 24.5 points. That’s four legs — all rooted in real trends.
Scott Rickenbach (84-76-1 record) took Duke -11.5 at -125. Sean Paul (110-102-0) took Arkansas +11.5. The numbers don’t lie — this isn’t a coin flip. It’s a chess match where one side moves fast, the other moves deep.
What This Game Means Beyond the Box Score
Duke’s season is already impressive. But beating Arkansas — a team that’s scored 90+ in five of six games — would silence the skeptics who say they’re just a slow, defensive team without offensive firepower. It would prove they can win against elite scoring offenses without needing to run.
For Arkansas, a cover — even a loss — would signal they’re ready for the SEC gauntlet. Meleek Thomas, a freshman who’s already averaging 18.4 points, could be the breakout star of the season. If he drops 20 against Duke’s elite perimeter defense, the national conversation changes.
And for bettors? This isn’t about picking the winner. It’s about understanding the rhythm. Duke wins by making you feel every second of the clock. Arkansas wins by making you forget it’s even there.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the under so popular despite both teams scoring so much?
Duke’s defense holds opponents to 57 points per game — the best in the nation — and they play at the 242nd-slowest pace. Arkansas, while high-scoring, has gone under in four of its last five games. Duke doesn’t allow transition opportunities, neutralizing Arkansas’ biggest strength. The result? Low-possession, low-scoring games even when both teams average 90+ points.
Can Arkansas cover the -11.5 point spread?
Yes — and multiple sharp analysts are betting on it. Duke’s defense limits scoring, but Arkansas’ offensive efficiency and Duke’s own slow pace mean the Razorbacks could easily score 70-75 points. If Duke wins 80-72, Arkansas covers. That’s why the spread is so inflated — the market expects a blowout, but the game’s rhythm suggests a close, defensive grind.
Who are the key players to watch?
For Duke, Cameron Boozer and Pat Ngongba control the paint and rebounding. For Arkansas, freshman guard Meleek Thomas leads the team in three-pointers (2.7 per game) and has scored 16+ points in every game he’s played more than 18 minutes. D.J. Wagner’s 1.8 steals per game could disrupt Duke’s half-court sets, making him a hidden X-factor.
How does this game compare to past matchups between Duke and Arkansas?
The last meeting in 2022 ended 78-69 in Duke’s favor, but Arkansas won the prior encounter 80-75. Both games were high-scoring and competitive. This year’s matchup is different — Duke’s defense is far more dominant, and Arkansas’ offense is more reliant on freshmen. The style of play has shifted dramatically, making history less relevant than current trends.
What’s the most likely final score?
Dimers.com’s 10,000 simulations point to Duke 80, Arkansas 71. Bleacher Nation predicts 82-74. But given Duke’s tendency to slow games and Arkansas’ ability to score in bunches, a 78-69 or 81-70 outcome seems most plausible — both of which would mean Arkansas covers the spread and the under hits.
Is this game a trap for Duke?
It could be. Duke’s been dominant, but they’ve played a relatively soft schedule. Arkansas is the first true test of their defense against a high-powered offense. If Duke looks complacent or takes the Razorbacks lightly, the fast-paced, aggressive Arkansas squad could force them into uncharacteristic mistakes — especially in the second half.